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If you're not a practitioner or follower of Gracie (Brazilian) jiu-jitsu or don't know the history of vale tudo, NHB and now MMA then perhaps you might call the victory of Fabricio Werdum over Fedor in San Jose, California an upset. But when Werdum locked in the winning triangle at 1:32 of round one, those who have seen Werdum win numerous world championships in BJJ using his submission skills were more likely saying, "If you play with fire you're going to get burned." In this case "playing with fire" was Fedor's decision to follow Werdum to the ground inside his guard and bang away without any apparent sense of danger for Werdum's world-class jiu-jitsu skills.
In Pride, Fedor was able to withstand Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighters by NOT playing their game. By daring them to stand and bang with him and not going down where they have the decided advantage. Against Werdum, it was this lack of caution that doomed him. If it hadn't of been Werdum locking in the winning triangle, any number of top Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighters, given that same position, would have also ended the fight with the same result. Off the top of my head I can think of Roger Gracie, Ronaldo Souza, and Xande Ribeiro just to name a few. Pounding away from top inside guard position with elbow and neck exposed was an early Christmas present that the highly-skilled Werdum was only too happy to open.
Once during a class at the Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Academy I remember Rorion Gracie saying, "Fighting a jiu-jitsu fighter is like walking through a minefield. If you take your time and tread carefully then you might be okay, but if you make one mistake then it is all over." Fedor was just a little too fast in walking through that minefield. What the fight did was to ruin what might have been the biggest heavyweight match of the past decade in Overeem vs. Fedor and position Fabricio Werdum as the new "man to beat" in the MMA heavyweight ranks. One can only imagine Strikeforce president Scott Coker sitting backstage after the fight pulling out what hair he has left. But Werdum, one of the nicest guys in the sport, deserves all the attention he's getting and then some.
What does this mean for MMA? It's all good. Unpredictability has always been the strong point of MMA versus other combat sports. There are so many ways to win (and lose) that any fighter at nearly any level has a chance to beat anyone else on any given night. That is why I always roll my eyes when one promotion claims to have "the best fighters on the planet." Such a thing simply just doesn't exist. There are any number of shows such as UFC, KOTC, Dream, Sengoku, Strikeforce, Adrenaline, Belator and others who could bring in fighters at nearly any weight class to face each other who have a legitimate chance to win. Just ask Fedor.
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